The Future of Jobs and AI: Is it Increasing or Decreasing Job Opportunities…YES!

Is ChatGPT experience more valuable than a college education?

Apparently, 86% of over 1,000 hiring managers surveyed think so…truly amazing, considering this technology has been available for less than six months and most of those surveyed, I suspect, have limited or no direct real experience with this technology (based on audiences of professionals I have been addressing recently).

Note: As part of this newsletter issue, I have included OpenAI’s ChatGPT-3.5, GPT-4, and Alphabet/Google’s BARD responses from the following prompt. I used the R-STAR method of Prompt Engineering as described in the last newsletter (https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/prompt-engineering-dr-scott-d-r-star-methods-prompts-dr-scott/ ) to design this prompt. The responses are included at the end of this newsletter. These responses are the only use of AI Chatbots in the generating of content for this newsletter. All other content has been human (me) generated, with a little help from Grammarly.

Prompt–generated responses are at the end of this newsletter:

You are a futurist with 20 years of experience in understanding the impact of technology on the future and effectively predicting the impact of these technologies. You have seen the rapid impact of artificial intelligence and large language model technologies, AI Chatbots, and Generative Artificial Intelligence taking the world by storm. People are excited, fearful, and hopeful all at the same time. You are to project the top ten industries likely to increase employment because of these technologies and the ten industries likely to lose jobs because of these technologies in a numbered format, 1-10 for each. You are to then project the top ten job titles anticipated to have the highest growth and the top ten job titles anticipated to have the highest job loss, also in a 1-10 numbered format, for each of those categories.

Welcome to the sixth edition of our monthly Career Capsule. I am appreciative of the warm reception and increasing interest, now reaching over 4,500 subscribers with each issue – growth achieved in less than six months. Thank You! If you find value, please pass the word and help us to get to over 5,000 by sharing the link at https://tinyurl.com/CareerCapsuleNewsletter! Also, do react below, and better yet, leave a comment, insight, or questions. Also, we welcome your feedback as to what else you might like to see – your input has already resulted in quality newsletter additions and changes.

A few additional announcements before getting to the meat of the topic. I was honored this past week with the opportunity to give the keynote address for the SC Association of Colleges and Employers (https://www.goscace.org/), sharing insights about the impact of AI and ChatGPT on the career space and how it affects our students as they pursue opportunities, and employers as they seek to attract the best candidates. In June, I will be addressing the annual National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE- https://www.naceweb.org/conferenceexpo/default.htm ) with my business partner in Orlando and flying solo at the Institute addressing the Institute of Management Accountants (IMA23-https://www.imaconference.org/event/358a29af-02ad-48d9-8a99-28c2f75ff826/summary) annual conference in Minneapolis. If you are attending either (or both) please do let me know! Would love to catch up. Additionally, I will be speaking in Charleston at the SC Association of CPAs (SCACPA-https://www.scacpa.org/spring-splash/) gathering at the end of May, along with making two presentations, in addition to moderating multiple sessions at the American Accounting Association (AAA – https://aaahq.org/Meetings/2023/Annual-Meeting) annual meeting and Conference on Teaching and Learning in Denver this August.

Before going too much further, I also wanted to let you know about and invite you to a free LinkedIn training I am conducting this Monday, sponsored by Miles Education (https://mileseducation.com/). You are welcome to attend and join me on 5/22 at 10:30 EDT – this includes one hour of optional approved CPE at no charge. Event registration can be found on LinkedIn at https://www.linkedin.com/events/7065658203824422912/about/. Appreciation goes out to Miles Education for their Major/Premier Sponsorships, the highest level available for both, at the AAA and NACE conferences. I discovered their active participation after I was already coincidentally scheduled to attend and speak at both. Looking forward to seeing them, and hopefully you, there.

Also, if you need a passionate and insightful speaker or keynote who can inspire an audience, virtually or live, please feel free to reach out to me via email or directly for a chat at your convenience via https://Calendly.com/DrScottCPA.

Now, back to our regularly scheduled newsletter. In their 2023 Future of Jobs survey/report, the World Economic Forum (WEF) updated its 2020 projections. They anticipate a GAIN of 69M Jobs…and a LOSS of 83M in the next five years (https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-future-of-jobs-report-2023/digest/), a net LOSS of 14M contrary to their 2020 report anticipating a LOSS of 85M and GAIN of 92M by 2025, a net 12M increase. A previous newsletter talked about the 2020 study. Their latest global survey includes responses from over 800 companies from around the globe. Yet 50% of organization respondees anticipate job growth while only 25% (alright, a big only) anticipate job losses, which translates to me that those expecting losses are expecting bigger losses than those anticipating gains. New technologies and green initiatives are anticipated to be the primary drivers of the changes.

Highlights from the WEF report include a discussion about where jobs are being created. Technological advances, including big data and artificial intelligence, are projected to enhance job growth in over half the companies surveyed. This complements the 75% response by companies adopting and using these technologies in the next five years. The highest losses will be caused by churn in the areas of supply chain, transportation, media, entertainment, and sports. They also project resilience in manufacturing and wholesale/retail of consumer goods. It should be noted that this is a global survey including developed and developing countries.

The jobs affected are a mixed bag. The biggest job losses, significantly impacted by automation, are in administrative/clerk and data entry roles, netting 26 million fewer jobs by 2027. Specific roles affected include bank tellers and related clerks, postal service clerks, cashiers and ticket clerks, and data entry clerks. Increased job demand is projected in the areas of education (amen!), agriculture, and digital commerce – including digital marketing and strategy specializations.

Areas of growth and decline are highlighted below, with AI and Machine Learning (ML) specialists leading the charge ahead of sustainability specialists and business intelligence analysts.

The top two skills desired by companies are analytical thinking and creative thinking. These are followed, in order, by resilience (including flexibility and agility), motivation, and curiosity/lifelong learning. Rounding out the top ten needed skills is tech. literacy, detail orientation, empathy, leadership/social influence, and quality control. These skills include talents relating to systems thinking, AI and big data, talent management, service orientation, and customer service. This is a powerful mix of soft skills and hard skills. It makes me wonder, with the deemphasis by many in higher education, where, how, and from whom will our next generations be obtaining these needed skills for success? A whopping 44% of workers’ core skills are expected to change over the next 5 years.

It is interesting to compare the above list to the NACE 2023 competencies survey (https://www.naceweb.org/about-us/press/employers-seek-key-attributes-on-college-grads-resumes-as-their-focus-on-gpa-wanes/), released November 2022, with the top 3 desired attributes being problem-solving, team-work capabilities, and work ethic, with technical/quantitative skills showing up in fourth place and communication skills in fifth as indicated below:

Big data and data analytics are expected to be primary drivers of growing job opportunities. Sixty-five percent of survey respondents indicated that big data analytics would be a leading area of job growth (29% neutral, 7% negative), and AI’s impact would be 49% positive (28% neutral, 23% negative). Yes, technology will have the lion’s share of impact on our future.

The big challenge to the future success of surveyed organizations is where to find the appropriate talent with the desired skills. The two biggest impediments to this success are the skills gap and attracting talent. The top two strategies to mitigate these challenges are investing in on-the-job training (81%) and acceleration of automation (80%). Rounding out the top 5 means of addressing are outsourcing significant areas (25%) and expanding the use of contractors (24%).

DEI&B (Diversity, Equity, Inclusion, and Belonging) efforts will be emphasizing initiatives relating to women (79%), youth & Gen Z (68%), disabled populations (51%), and disadvantaged backgrounds (religious, ethnic, and racial at 39%). Rounding out the top six are over 55 workers (36%) and LGBTQI+ (35%) populations.

The WEF survey is consistent overall with other analyses. A 2013 Oxford University study projected that AI could eliminate 47% of U.S. jobs over the next 20 years. Though we still have 10 years to go, it appears that this fearful figure is (hopefully) far from reality (https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/future-of-employment.pdf, we still have 10 to go). If you are concerned about potential 45% unemployment, you might enjoy the 15-minute video “Humans Need Not Apply” at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU&vl=en.

Relating to post-pandemic impact, according to a more recent 2021 McKinsey study incorporating pandemic influences, examining 800 occupations in 8 eight countries (https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/the-future-of-work-after-covid-19), it concludes 20% -25% of workforces could work from home from three to five days a week, representing 4X to 5X pre-pandemic levels, a significant increase. That leaves 75%-80% that can’t. It also projects the biggest job losses to be found in office support, customer service/sales, food service, and agriculture (the last contrary to WEF findings, but probably depends on the type of agricultural activities). According to that same McKinsey report, the highest growth can be found in direct contact and other health workers, along with STEM professionals. Managers and business professionals were also projected to have increased employment, although education (contrary to WEF findings) also indicated a decrease. McKinsey summarized their perception of job impact by industry as follows:

As for the impact of AI on corporate spending, PWC, one of the Big 4 CPA firms, announced a $1B commitment to AI investments in the next 3 years (on 4/26/23 https://www.pwc.com/us/en/about-us/newsroom/press-releases/pwc-us-makes-billion-investment-in-ai-capabilities.html), highlighted the following industries for growth and decline. Consistent with McKinsey, health and STEM came out on top, though education, according to PWC, was a net increase rather than a decrease, and both transportation and manufacturing were a net decrease:

Other AI impact surveys include a Fishbowl (recently acquired by Glassdoor) analysis of AI adoption, which shows a heavy impact on manufacturing and technology. Based on previous workforce projections and job opportunities, manufacturing will be negatively impacted, while STEM will be positively impacted.

As for hiring intentions, two additional surveys look interesting. The first was sponsored by ResumeBuilder.com, surveying over 1,000 business leaders and published on 4/17/23 (https://www.resumebuilder.com/9-in-10-companies-that-are-currently-hiring-want-workers-with-chatgpt-experience/). They indicated that 30% of companies are currently “urgently hiring” people with ChatGPT experience and 29% of companies are looking to hire prompt engineers this year – some positions as high as $300K (for additional insights see previous newsletter discussion on the DR-SCOTT-D and R-STAR methods for Prompt Engineering at https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/prompt-engineering-dr-scott-d-r-star-methods-prompts-dr-scott/. Also, of the 92% of those organizations hiring, 91% want workers with ChatGPT experience. It is pretty amazing, considering that the technology was released less than six months ago, on 11/30/23. Talk about validation of the Gartner Hype Cycle (https://www.gartner.com/en/chat/gartner-hype-cycle).

An even more striking survey, at least to me, was one conducted by Intelligent.com of over 1,000 hiring managers, indicating that 98% of open entry-level positions REQUIRE ChatGPT experience. Yes, 98% require it, while only 2% do not. The scariest element of that survey to me was that 86% agreed that ChatGPT experience can be MORE valuable than a college degree. I am trying to wrap my head around this statistic and understand how managers, most of which I suspect have very limited exposure or experience with the technology, and even those that are more familiar, could only have been exposed to this technology for less than six months. How can they be informed enough to jump on board so quickly? I agree that this technology’s impact is major, even more significant than the printing press or the invention of the wheel (actually, more importantly, the axle), but how can being able to use this technology now, when most have not even had the opportunity to experiment hands-on, can this disruptive technology be judged to be more valuable than a commitment to the discipline of higher education and even lifelong learning? A more detailed discussion can be found in the source report of this survey at https://www.intelligent.com/9-in-10-hiring-managers-say-chatgpt-experience-can-be-more-valuable-than-a-college-degree/.

So, what does all this mean?

CHANGE is the only constant. There is an old Chinese proverb that I used to get me excited. It sounds encouraging, stating, “May you live in interesting times.” I took this to mean experiencing potentially exciting opportunities for growth and learning. A knowledgeable colleague of mine informed me of the normally perceived nature of this proverb as a curse rather than a blessing. It curses you as interesting times mean change and upheaval, with change being a challenge to deal with and adjust to…I still prefer my original interpretation.

I went ahead and asked ChatGPT-3.5 and GPT-4 the following. Both responses are included below. I used the R-STAR method to generate the prompt as described in the previous newsletter.

Prompt:

You are a futurist with 20 years of experience in understanding the impact of technology on the future and effectively predicting the impact of these technologies. You have seen the rapid impact of artificial intelligence and large language model technologies, AI Chatbots, and Generative Artificial Intelligence taking the world by storm. People are excited, fearful, and hopeful, all at the same time. You are to project the top ten industries likely to increase employment because of these technologies and the ten industries likely to lose jobs because of these technologies in a numbered format, 1-10 for each. You are to then project the top ten job titles anticipated to have the highest growth and the top ten job titles anticipated to have the highest job loss, also in a 1-10 numbered format for each of those categories.

ChatGPT-3.5 Response:

As a futurist with expertise in technology’s impact, I can provide you with projections regarding the potential impact of artificial intelligence and large language models on various industries and job titles. However, please note that these projections are based on current trends and assumptions and may not be entirely accurate, as the future is uncertain.

Industries Likely to Increase Employment:

1. Artificial Intelligence Development and Research: The demand for AI experts, data scientists, and researchers will continue to rise as organizations invest in developing and improving AI technologies.
2. Data Analysis and Interpretation: With the increasing availability of data, there will be a growing need for professionals skilled in analyzing and deriving valuable insights from large datasets.
3. Cybersecurity: As AI technology evolves, so do the techniques used by cybercriminals. This will create a demand for cybersecurity professionals capable of countering sophisticated threats.
4. Healthcare and Medical Services: AI will revolutionize healthcare by improving diagnostics, patient monitoring, and personalized treatment. Consequently, there will be a surge in demand for healthcare professionals and technicians who can work alongside AI systems.
5. Robotics and Automation: The integration of AI into robotics will lead to increased automation across various industries, creating a demand for robotics engineers, technicians, and maintenance personnel.
6. E-commerce and Online Retail: AI-powered recommendation systems, virtual assistants, and personalized shopping experiences will drive the growth of e-commerce, necessitating additional roles in marketing, customer support, and logistics.
7. Sustainable Energy and Environmental Technologies: AI can optimize energy consumption, manage grids, and facilitate the development of sustainable solutions. This will generate employment opportunities in renewable energy and environmental technology sectors.
8. Education and E-learning: AI-based tutoring, personalized learning, and adaptive educational systems will reshape the education landscape, creating new roles for educators, instructional designers, and AI specialists.
9. Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality: The implementation of AI in VR/AR applications will increase the demand for developers, designers, and content creators in the gaming, entertainment, and training sectors.
10. Creative Industries: AI tools can augment creativity in areas like content creation, design, and marketing. This will lead to the emergence of new job roles focusing on AI-assisted creative processes.

Industries Likely to Experience Job Loss:

1. Manufacturing and Assembly: The increasing adoption of automation and robotics in manufacturing processes may reduce the need for manual labor, leading to job losses in traditional assembly line roles.
2. Transportation and Logistics: The advancement of autonomous vehicles and AI-based logistics systems could lead to a decrease in job opportunities for truck drivers, delivery personnel, and certain administrative roles.
3. Customer Service and Call Centers: AI-powered chatbots and virtual assistants will handle routine customer inquiries, potentially reducing the number of human customer service representatives.
4. Data Entry and Administrative Tasks: As AI systems improve their data processing capabilities, jobs that primarily involve manual data entry and administrative tasks may decline.
5. Retail and Supermarkets: The rise of self-checkout systems and automated stores may decrease employment opportunities for cashiers and other entry-level retail positions.
6. Financial Services: AI algorithms can automate certain financial tasks, such as risk assessment and algorithmic trading, decreasing employment for some roles in the financial sector.
7. Legal Services: AI-powered legal research tools and document analysis systems may reduce the demand for paralegals and certain legal research positions.
8. Customer Support in IT: AI-based virtual agents and chatbots can handle technical support queries, potentially reducing the need for human IT support staff.
9. Real Estate: AI-driven platforms and tools can streamline property searches and transactions, potentially impacting employment in real estate agencies and related support roles.
10. Traditional Advertising and Marketing: AI-powered algorithms and programmatic advertising can optimize marketing campaigns, potentially reducing the need for certain roles in traditional advertising and marketing.

Job Titles with High Growth Potential:

1. AI Engineer/Developer
2. Data Scientist
3. Cybersecurity Analyst
4. Healthcare Technologist
5. Robotics Engineer
6. E-commerce Specialist
7. Renewable Energy Engineer
8. AI Education Specialist
9. VR/AR Developer
10. AI-Assisted Creative Designer

Job Titles with Potential Job Loss:

1. Assembly Line Worker
2. Truck Driver
3. Customer Service Representative
4. Data Entry Clerk
5. Cashier
6. Financial Analyst
7. Paralegal
8. IT Support Specialist
9. Real Estate Agent
10. Traditional Marketer

GPT-4 Response:

Understood. It’s essential to note that these projections are based on the technology trends and development pathways available until my last training cut-off in September 2021. Beyond that, future technological developments may significantly alter these projections. Also, these trends are global and may vary greatly based on local industries, regulations, and economic development.

Top 10 Industries Likely to Increase Employment Due to AI and Generative Technologies:

1. Data Science and Analytics: The need to understand and utilize data effectively will increase significantly, and so will the demand for professionals in this field.
2. Healthcare: AI is set to revolutionize healthcare, with jobs ranging from AI specialists working on drug discovery to technicians maintaining and operating AI diagnostic machines.
3. Cybersecurity: With the rise of AI, the risks of cyber threats also increase, necessitating a larger cybersecurity workforce.
4. Education and Training: The demand for AI literacy is growing, leading to more jobs in AI-focused education and training.
5. Software Development: Customization of AI solutions will drive demand for software developers and engineers.
6. E-commerce: AI is boosting the capabilities of online retail, leading to job growth in areas like logistics, customer service, and data analysis.
7. Energy: AI can optimize energy production and consumption, creating jobs related to AI implementation and maintenance in this sector.
8. Finance: AI can enhance risk assessment, fraud detection, and algorithmic trading, leading to more job opportunities.
9. Agriculture: AI can optimize crop yield and livestock management, increasing the need for tech-savvy agricultural specialists.
10. Transportation and Logistics: Self-driving technology and AI-optimized logistics will drive job growth in this sector.

Top 10 Industries Likely to Decrease Employment Due to AI and Generative Technologies:

1. Manufacturing: AI and automation will likely reduce the need for manual labor in factories.
2. Retail: E-commerce and automated checkouts may reduce the need for traditional retail workers.
3. Call Centers: AI chatbots may replace many call center jobs.
4. Data Entry: AI is capable of automating repetitive data entry tasks.
5. Transportation: Self-driving vehicles may reduce the need for drivers.
6. Warehousing: Automation in warehousing may reduce the need for human workers.
7. Fast Food Services: Automated systems for ordering and preparing food may reduce the need for fast-food workers.
8. Bookkeeping and Accounting: AI is increasingly capable of performing routine bookkeeping tasks.
9. Newspaper Publishing: AI can automate news reporting to some extent, reducing the need for journalists.
10. Movie and TV Production: AI and deepfake technology may reduce the need for human actors and crew.

Top 10 Job Titles Anticipated to Have the Highest Growth:

1. Data Scientist
2. AI/ML Engineer
3. AI Specialist
4. Robotics Engineer
5. Cybersecurity Analyst
6. AI Ethicist
7. AI Systems Manager
8. AI Healthcare Specialist
9. AI Education Specialist
10. AI Implementation Consultant

Top 10 Job Titles Anticipated to Have the Highest Job Loss:

1. Factory Worker
2. Retail Salesperson
3. Data Entry Clerk
4. Truck Driver
5. Call Center Representative
6. Fast Food Worker
7. Warehouse Worker
8. Bookkeeper
9. Journalist
10. Film and TV Crew Member

While AI and generative technologies are likely to result in job losses in some sectors, it’s crucial to remember that they will also create entirely new jobs that we can’t fully predict yet. For those in industries threatened by automation, upskilling or retraining for jobs in growing sectors may be a wise course of action.

BARD Response:

Top 10 industries that are likely to increase employment because of AI

1. Healthcare
2. Finance
3. Manufacturing
4. Retail
5. Technology
6. Education
7. Transportation
8. Agriculture
9. Government
10. Media and entertainment

Top 10 industries that are likely to lose jobs because of AI

1. Customer service
2. Data entry
3. Manufacturing
4. Transportation
5. Retail
6. Agriculture
7. Accounting
8. Legal
9. Journalism
10. Security

Top 10 job titles anticipated to have the highest growth because of AI

1. Data scientist
2. Machine learning Engineer
3. Artificial intelligence Engineer
4. Robotics Engineer
5. Software Engineer
6. Security Engineer
7. Cloud Engineer
8. DevOps Engineer
9. Data analyst
10. Business Intelligence analyst

Top 10 job titles anticipated to have the highest job loss because of AI

1. Telemarketer
2. Bookkeeper
3. Compensation and benefits manager
4. Receptionist
5. Courier
6. Proofreader
7. Computer support specialist
8. Market research analyst
9. Advertising salesperson
10. Retail salesperson

It is important to note that these are just projections, and the actual impact of AI on employment will depend on a number of factors, including the pace of technological development, the willingness of businesses to adopt AI, and the government’s response to AI.

I will let you be the judge of which platform you find to be the most complete and potentially accurate responses. They all have similar themes despite some interesting contrasts.

Hope you enjoyed this edition! May we continue to Learn, Share, and GROW together in these interesting times!

If you want to discuss anything further or would like to share insights, please feel free to comment directly on this newsletter post and/or reach out at https://Calendly.com/DrScottCPA.

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